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Forecast Network Blueprint

A network that turns questions about the future into verifiable forecasts.

Version 0.9 · Updated September 10, 2026 · Product and technical whitepaper

Web beta: Forecast Network · Web verification record

This public blueprint is the public expression of the product and architecture handoff. Its restrictions on purchasing, transferring, or redeeming points, and its resolution rules, remain authoritative. The roadmap records delivery scope and acceptance gates. A separate, privately maintained risk research track experiments with synthetic assets on Devnet. It does not introduce real funds or coin issuance into the forecasting service.

The public product uses English by default. Four-language interface packs are deployed in 0.6.0; these public articles remain English. Original handoffs and research sources retain their original language. Localized document navigation explicitly identifies the article language rather than imply a translated article.

1. What we are building

Forecast Network lets people ask questions about the future, compare human and AI forecasts, and examine outcomes against public evidence. A record of well-calibrated judgment builds long-term reputation. Every published question specifies what will be decided, when, and using which sources.

“Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone before 2028?” requires a distinction between announcement and retail availability, a closing time, official sources, and explicit YES, NO, and INVALID conditions. AI turns the question into a clear specification. The creator reviews it before publication. Published criteria cannot be changed after the outcome becomes known.

Prediction points cannot be purchased or transferred between users. There is no redemption for cash, SOL, USDC, tokens, NFTs, prizes, discounts, or other economic benefits. Reputation is also non-transferable. Probabilities and scores help people compare and improve their judgment. Solana's intended role is verifiable state and history, not monetary settlement.

2. Implementation status

Area Status Evidence and boundary
Domain, lifecycle, schemas Original foundation preserved; 0.8 extension implemented Original 40 schemas unchanged; 52 generated contracts including early positive triggers and pricing
Domain and compression cost research Verified baseline 76 domain tests plus eight cost tests in the earlier research release
Web, API, authentication, persistence Beta deployed; key paths verified HTTPS, D1, registration, sessions, recovery, logout, CSRF, mobile and desktop checks
AI calls and task routing Implemented; live compiler verified Three editorial questions published through Gemini; Cloudflare AI REST call verified and binding configured
English default and multilingual input Deployed and verified English compilation and preview; separate display translations for immutable historical specifications
Optional wallet ownership linking Deployed and verified Five-minute single-use signature challenge; profile and recovery authentication retained
Shareable forecasting record Deployed and verified Owner-published all-time metrics, selected finalized calls, PNG exports and a dated public record link
Participation points, policy v1 Deployed in API 0.5.0 Production migration and grant checks; stake, race and settlement checks in isolated runtimes
Four-language interface Deployed and verified in 0.6.0 English, Korean, Japanese and Traditional Chinese; production and Seeker Chrome layout/input checks passed
Solana registry Deployed; three public current revisions confirmed Exact binary and public histories verified through a one-time Mac operator run; Cloudflare automatic delivery is blocked by RPC access; elapsed 48-hour finalization remains unverified
Signing-key custody Four roles stored in this Mac's Keychain Only the hot relayer seed enters Workers Secrets; cold administrator/upgrade authority remains local; independent recovery backup not yet verified
Resolution, disputes, follow-up jobs Implemented with regression coverage Independent review and outbox paths tested; live 48-hour full cycle and load validation remain
Official-source observer and early review Deployed and verified in0.8.0 Official-source observation and actual Gemini/Cloudflare early YES proposal; finalization awaits the full challenge period
Funded changing-price markets Persistent shadow path verified locally 100 test points → 190.902828 correct-outcome claims; active point adapter remains disabled
Service-cost and refund accounting Nonbillable sandbox verified locally Uncertain billing and full refunds checked; no customer payment integration
Synthetic risk models and Safety Kernel Separate research design New domain, simulator, and Devnet experiment remain incomplete

The deployed API 0.5.0 release passed 285 Python tests, 69 frontend tests, and 40 schema checks, plus Ruff and strict mypy. Production HTTPS tests verified English compilation from Korean input with an unchanged deadline, separately bound historical translations, and real Ed25519 wallet ownership signatures. The verification record distinguishes these checks from remaining long-running lifecycle and real-wallet-extension testing. Those counts describe 0.5.0, not verification of the upcoming language packs. Production migration 0004 reconciled all five existing profiles at 1,000 points each. A new private profile received 1,000 points over HTTPS, then 500 after a real signature from an unfunded test wallet. Unlinking and relinking produced no additional grant; the wallet was subsequently unlinked and the session logged out. No public forecast or comment was written during these checks.

Stake races, exact retries, legacy/account guards, 100-point settlement returns of 200/0/100 for correct/incorrect/INVALID, and two successful scheduled-trigger requests were verified in isolated local runtimes. Full migrations and ledger semantics were also checked in a disposable remote D1 database, which was removed afterward. These are not production stake-flow or elapsed 48-hour lifecycle results. Points verification.

The previous release verified production HTTPS responses, D1, documents, and authentication. Forecast submissions, comments, retries, and stale-revision races were tested through a real local HTTP runtime. Public canonical hashes and UTC dates were checked. At that verification point there were three editorial questions and zero human forecasts; these figures are a dated baseline, not live usage metrics.

The following sections include design targets and unfinished work. A generated hash does not establish on-chain verification, and a deployed website does not establish completion of the full lifecycle. See the web verification record, Milestone 1 evidence, and compression research.

For 0.9.0, the verification baseline is 555 Python tests, 131 frontend tests, 23 Rust guard tests, 52 schemas, Ruff and strict mypy across 28 source files. The Devnet verification record separates those checks from real transactions and the remaining hosted-relayer access problem. Two confirmed cheating paths are now covered by application and database regression tests: unresolved known-result timing reviews cannot later award points through ordinary expiry, and watched legacy questions reject participation while source checks are unhealthy or relevant reviews remain unresolved. Cloudflare rollout verification is in progress. Fresh accounts and newly generated wallets still require a stronger Sybil policy.

All three current public forecast revisions are confirmed on Devnet: iPhone at revision 6 / CHALLENGE, Windows and M6 Mac at revision 2 / OPEN. A one-time operator command on this Mac replayed their histories through the same durable adapter. Cloudflare's direct public RPC requests had been failing. An authenticated Devnet RPC proxy is now deployed and scheduled delivery has been exercised, so hosted anchoring runs with the automatic relay flag true while history reads and durable delivery intents remain enabled. The 48-hour finalization interval is still unobserved, so registry operation is not described as fully autonomous.

3. The user loop

A user discovers a question, chooses YES or NO, and records confidence. They compare their judgment with available crowd, expert, and AI signals. A share link opens that specific question. After finalization, the user can see what they got right and where their confidence was misplaced, then return for another forecast.

Write → Compile → Preview → Publish → Forecast → Compare → Share
                                      ↓
Return ← Notify and update reputation ← Finalize ← Challenge ← Propose ← Close

Participation should be quick on mobile without requiring blockchain knowledge. The intended primary surfaces are Home, Explore, Create, Activity, and Profile. “Today's five forecasts” is a product hypothesis for concentrating participation around a useful daily set.

Crowd, top-forecaster, domain-expert, and AI probabilities remain separate. Missing samples or undefined expert criteria must not be filled with invented numbers or badges. Signals with different timestamps, sample sizes, or formula versions must not be presented as one undifferentiated consensus.

Creation is open; distribution is ranked by clarity, uniqueness, freshness, participation momentum, creator quality, and resolution quality. A featured set of 30–50 and an active set of 300–500 are target densities, not current inventory or verified capacity. Similar questions should direct users to an existing forecast unless their resolution rules materially differ.

4. AI compilation and language

Interface language is separate from content

The 0.6.0 update adds English (en), Korean (ko), Japanese (ja) and Traditional Chinese (zh-Hant) interface packs. English is used on first visit, without browser- language detection. Only an explicit saved choice changes it. Labels, errors, authentication and recovery instructions, wallet and points screens, image labels, and accessible announcements are included. Number and date presentation follows the chosen locale without changing stored values.

Language packs do not translate questions, comments, published rules, evidence or wallet-signature bytes. The existing compiler and separately bound English historical translations remain distinct features. Document navigation is localized while articles retain their original English or research language, with an explicit notice and article language metadata.

Switching must preserve form drafts, recovery information and wallet state, and is blocked while sensitive operations are busy. It cannot submit a forecast, repeat a grant or request a wallet transaction. Integration and production checks passed, including Seeker Chrome layout and input. Devnet and Mobile Wallet Adapter remain separate work. Localization architecture.

On-demand reading translations — 0.7.0

Translate / Original controls on forecast titles request a server-side AI translation of the question, conditions, invalidation rules and existing rationale. Targets are Korean, Japanese and Traditional Chinese. A separate review checks fidelity before the source-bound result is cached. Errors retain the original; published rules remain authoritative. Interface switching itself does not request translations. The 0.8 interface hides this control for English-source questions in English. This uses existing AI providers and spends no SOL. Translation architecture.

Existing compilation and immutable translations

The Market Compiler produces YES, NO, and INVALID conditions, UTC deadlines, primary and fallback sources, ambiguity findings, duplicate candidates, category, and share title. It must not disguise an unverifiable question with polished prose.

The English-default update follows this flow:

Input in a supported language → AI compiles English question and rules
                             → User reviews English specification → Publish

The original input is retained. Translation must preserve the intended subject, time window, thresholds, sources, and outcome conditions. If meaning remains ambiguous, the creator must resolve it before publication. English is the shared reading experience, while input is not restricted to English.

Previously published Korean specifications remain immutable. Their English display translations are separate artifacts, bound by hash to the original specification and to the translated content. They do not replace the original commitment. An original-integrity view lets readers inspect the authoritative specification and its hash. A translation cannot silently change resolution rules or authorize a state transition. English compilation and historical translations were verified in the deployed release; the verification record distinguishes their tested paths.

Compilation, ambiguity assessment, duplicate detection, source verification, evidence collection, resolution, counter-judgment, and dispute analysis are separate tasks. Routing considers cost, latency, ambiguity, source reliability, and conflicting evidence. Every request does not call every provider.

The default path uses a lower-cost model and deterministic checks. Uncertain or conflicting cases escalate; material disputes require an independent provider's review. Structured reasoning, source-grounded analysis, public-signal analysis, and overflow capacity are distinct provider roles. The previous beta verified the live Gemini compiler and a Cloudflare AI REST call with the Worker binding configured. Independent resolution and dispute paths have regression coverage, not yet a completed long-running production lifecycle.

Every AI decision records task, provider, model and version, policy and schema versions, input and output hashes, and decision time. Provider text is untrusted. Only validated, structured results can become domain commands. Instructions in external pages or model outputs cannot change permissions, published criteria, or tool execution policy.

5. An immutable lifecycle

The core models are ForecastSpecification, Forecast, UserForecast, Resolution, Dispute, UserReputation, and CreatorProfile. The implemented domain has no framework, database, network, or provider-SDK dependency. It validates an explicit command, execution time, and current state, then returns new immutable state and auditable events.

DRAFT → VALIDATING → OPEN → LOCKED → RESOLVING
      → PROPOSED → CHALLENGE → FINALIZED → ARCHIVED

Disputes enter DISPUTED; material conflicts enter ESCALATED for independent adjudication. A changed proposal starts a fresh challenge period. If all configured providers fail, the relevant resolution state is preserved as PAUSED. Recovery extends the challenge opportunity by the paused duration. A successful model call or scheduler run alone cannot finalize a forecast.

Publication binds the complete specification and its assessment. There is no command to rewrite published rules, sources, or closing time. Submissions are rejected after the trusted server deadline even if a delayed scheduler has not yet changed OPEN to LOCKED. Finalization requires an elapsed challenge period, no unreviewed disputes, and no unresolved material conflicts.

Versioned structural contracts are generated from the models. Separate semantic checks verify identity, hashes, causal timing, and state-dependent conditions. Persisted snapshots receive those checks when decoded. See the lifecycle contract and data and commitment contract.

6. Evidence and challenges

Resolution must explain how preserved evidence satisfies the original clauses. The collector records source bytes, capture time, source identity, hashes, and retention location. A URL locates material; it is not the material itself. Evidence used for a decision must remain reviewable when its live page changes or disappears.

After source verification, a judge proposes an outcome and a counter-judge examines it. The proposal includes YES, NO, or INVALID, confidence, matched and conflicting clauses, and a reason summary. A user challenges a specific rule application with a claim, evidence URL, clause reference, and explanation.

Review validates the submitted evidence, performs counter-analysis, and obtains an independent judgment. Rejection of evidence also requires an explicit disposition and review record. Unresolved material conflicts escalate rather than automatically finalizing the existing proposal. Submission, review, retention, adjudication, and finalization belong in a visible audit timeline.

Fetching, retaining, authenticating provider records, and enforcing actor roles remain adapter responsibilities. The domain checks relationships among records; it cannot independently establish which bytes a remote server served or whether a named provider actually performed a judgment.

7. Participation points and forecasting quality

Participation points — deployed policy v1

Policy participation-points-v1 adds optional commitments without changing the meaning of confidence or reputation:

Action or finalized result Points
Create a profile 1,000, once per account
Verify wallet ownership 500, once per account and once per address lifetime
Practice Explicitly commit 0
Participate with points Explicitly commit an integer from 1 to 1,000
Correct outcome Return 2× the amount, including the original commitment
Incorrect outcome Return 0; the commitment is consumed
INVALID Return the original commitment in full

Committing 100 points returns 200 total if correct, not 300. Points cannot be purchased, transferred, withdrawn, redeemed, or exchanged for economic benefits. They never weight crowd probability or reputation. Practice remains available when the available balance is zero.

Available and committed points are separate. Before closing, edits move only the difference and bind the commitment to the latest accepted YES/NO choice. Reducing it to zero returns to practice. Proposals, disputes and pauses do not settle points; only an immutable finalized outcome does. The policy attached to an existing commitment remains fixed.

Profile creation and its grant commit together. Wallet grants require verified ownership and lifetime uniqueness: renaming, signing in, unlinking, relinking or using another wallet cannot repeat the account's award, and an already-awarded address cannot earn another account's grant. A fresh address is not consumed when its account has already received the award. Migration handles existing profiles and eligible verified links once; historical forecasts remain practice.

Forecast changes, reservations, receipts and append-only ledger entries share an atomic D1 batch. Account-level guards prevent simultaneous questions from spending the same points, and unique settlement identities prevent duplicate credits. The authenticated profile exposes balances, onboarding and recent entries; public performance cards do not include point balances. This is application accounting deployed in API 0.5.0 and requires no Solana transaction. Production grants and isolated stake/settlement behavior have separate verification evidence. Implementation contract.

Reputation

Profiles distinguish participation from resolved performance: total and resolved forecasts, accuracy, Brier score, calibration, domain performance, consistency, dispute accuracy, and creator quality. Insufficient observations remain unmeasured.

Confidence is the probability assigned to the selected outcome. YES at 70 means P(YES) = 0.70; NO at 70 means P(YES) = 0.30. For binary outcome y and YES probability p, a Brier observation is (p − y)²; lower is better. INVALID outcomes are excluded from binary scoring. The system should distinguish habitual 51% forecasts from unjustified 99% confidence.

Observation timing, revised forecasts, minimum samples, calibration bins, and domain classifications require versioned scoring policies. A model field alone does not establish that a metric is being calculated in production. Reprocessing the same finalized event must not apply reputation twice.

A reputation commitment binds owner, formula version, snapshot revision, and the range of finalized events included. Inputs must support independent recalculation. Publishing a root does not by itself prove correct scoring.

8. Cloudflare and application boundaries

The mobile web and API are deployed at forecast.eastsea.xyz. A Cloudflare Worker reuses the Python domain and stores state in D1. UI, transport, storage, AI, and chain adapters sit outside the domain so deployment or provider changes do not redefine lifecycle rules. The verification record distinguishes production checks, local runtime checks, and remaining work.

Clients cannot choose trusted execution time, creator identity, provider reliability, or administrator roles. The API authenticates users and restricts submissions and disputes to their own identity. Publication, validation, resolution, pause, finalization, and exceptional adjudication each require the appropriate authority.

The optional wallet-linking update proves control of a public address using a single-use signature challenge that expires after five minutes. It retains the existing profile, recovery code, and session authentication. The service stores the public address and challenge/audit records for ownership verification, never private keys or wallet recovery phrases. This flow does not submit transactions, move funds, claim a balance, or replace account login. Linking an address is separate from deploying a Solana program or recording forecasts on-chain. The existing ownership flow, account preconditions and one-time points award are deployed in API 0.5.0; ownership and award checks do not establish on-chain records.

A retried command must recover its original receipt. Revision checks and atomic persistence cover the snapshot, receipt, event, and follow-up work. A late write must not overwrite newer state. AI jobs, chain submissions, reputation updates, and notifications use stable event identities and deduplication.

Authorized service credentials are read from the operator's Keychain and passed to server secret settings. They do not belong in browser code, public responses, documents, source control, or logs. Sessions, data access, and external calls use limited permissions. Evidence fetching requires internal-address protection, redirect revalidation, and size and time bounds.

9. On-chain compression and the 2 SOL target

The deployed Devnet registry contains specification hash, creator identity hash, lifecycle state, timestamps, outcome, dispute and reputation commitments, and audit hashes. Full questions, long evidence, AI reports, comments, search, and social data stay off-chain and are linked by exact hashes. Its 360-byte forecast account and 104-byte configuration are measured layouts. The finalized deployed executable is 101,008 bytes, with SHA-256 20e3140d28bc5438f0292983b96a0cbc30896074dcbb63678be3233f01a97890. See Devnet verification.

The registry checks authority, ordering, immutable identity, permitted transitions and an independent chain-clock challenge delay. It does not determine news truth, verify independent AI signatures or prove complete off-chain dispute inclusion. The hot relayer attests application records, and the cold upgrade authority can change program code. A configured program is not evidence that a particular web record has reached finalized chain confirmation. These distinctions are part of the storage and trust model.

The earlier research direction combined small individual active accounts, direct dispute receipts, and shared commitments for participation, reputation, and archives. The 160-byte direct-dispute receipt remains a candidate layout outside the current registry. Letting a server replace one root does not establish correct transitions or complete dispute intake.

State compression does not eliminate program storage costs. The executable needs its own on-chain allocation. Solana deployment documentation.

The actual rollout was funded with 2 Devnet SOL from an existing local wallet. No mainnet SOL was spent. This is test-network funding, not revenue or proof that mainnet hosting, AI and transaction costs will fit the same budget. Active point markets remain disabled, and billing remains a nonbillable sandbox.

Using the September 9, 2026 mainnet rent observations, a hypothetical 64 KiB program, 300 active forecasts, 15 dispute receipts, small configuration and commitment accounts, and a planned 0.05 SOL transaction allowance require about 1.431 SOL initially, or 1.847 SOL with a same-size upgrade buffer. These are assumed-layout calculations, not a measured program quote. With 256 simultaneous receipts, the same 300-forecast scenario reaches about 2.286 SOL including the buffer. Assumptions and observations, Solana rent RPC.

Light Compressed PDAs and SPL Account Compression are scaling candidates. They introduce proof, indexer, state-fee, and data-availability dependencies. Existing compression-protocol security work does not verify a new Forecast program. No NFT or economic asset issuance is introduced. Light Compressed PDAs, Light considerations, SPL Account Compression.

Before finalization, users need dispute intake that does not depend on inclusion in the operator's batch. Tests must cover participation inclusion time, proposal epochs, duplicate review, stale proofs, account recreation, and durable archives. Funding or capacity shortages must not allow valid challenges to be lost while finalization proceeds.

Two SOL is an initial on-chain funding target. It excludes Cloudflare, AI, evidence storage, RPC, prover and indexer services, security review, and indefinite operation. Actual executable size and current network costs must be measured before deployment.

10. Trust boundaries

Boundary Intended assurance Remaining trust
Domain rules Immutable criteria, valid transitions, consistent time and hash relationships Server authentication, authorization, and clock
Evidence hashes Captured bytes have not changed Source truthfulness and honest capture and retention
AI provenance Links inputs, configuration, and outputs Operator attestations correspond to actual provider calls
Solana commitments Recorded ordering and integrity under the deployed program Program correctness, authority policy, data availability
Compression proofs State inclusion and permitted updates Truth of AI judgments and completeness of submitted inputs

The initial service has operator-managed web, storage, and AI paths. It is not a fully decentralized resolution network. Provider identities must be normalized so aliases cannot bypass independent-review requirements. Hashes are not signatures; false data can also be hashed. Authenticated attestations and role enforcement require explicit implementation and testing.

Evidence-storage, provider, RPC, and indexer failures must appear as delayed or paused states. Local acceptance, chain submission, chain confirmation, and final resolution are distinct. Recovery evaluates commands again against current state and proofs rather than blindly replaying an old decision.

11. Privacy, authority, and change policy

Collect only what public forecasting and auditable evidence require. Email, session tokens, private source material, and API keys do not belong on-chain. Linking identifiers to public behavior can expose personal information; even a hash can permit guessing or correlation of sensitive input.

Evidence access, retention, account deletion, and the persistence of public records must be explained and tested as operational policies. Deleting a web account must not be presented as deleting previously published blockchain records. Logs exclude secrets and remain limited to recovery and audit needs. See the privacy notice.

The operator is responsible for initial policy, deployment, and exceptional cases. There is no economic-token voting or paid influence. Policy changes cannot rewrite a published specification. Provider policy, reputation formula, and schema changes are versioned with explicit applicability. Pause, recovery, and adjudication reasons belong in the audit history. Future upgrade authority requires documented custody, rotation, and recovery; no completed multisignature setup or external audit is claimed.

12. Measuring success

The north-star metric is active forecasters per active forecast. More questions are not useful growth if they fragment participation. D1, D7, and D30 retention, weekly participation, sharing conversion, duplicate prevention, INVALID outcomes, overturned resolutions, disputes, and AI costs provide context.

Initial hypotheses are D7 retention of at least 15–20%, at least five weekly forecasts per user, at least 80% publishable compiler outputs, INVALID below 3%, overturned resolutions below 2%, and disputes below 5%. These are neither achieved metrics nor guarantees. They require measurement with disclosed samples and time windows.

Clear questions, retained evidence, fair challenges, and reproducible reputation are completion criteria. The roadmap defines the delivery gates.

13. Separate research: synthetic-asset safety

A privately maintained integrated design explores using Forecast probabilities in reserve-risk experiments. Its scope is Devnet SOL, synthetic reserve assets, non-transferable reputation, and synthetic STABLE, ALONG, and ASHORT state. It excludes economic-value asset issuance, custody of user funds, mainnet minting, and rewards for forecast participants.

Forecast Network → Allowed risk channels → Risk Synthesizer
                 → Versioned risk snapshot → Safety Kernel → Synthetic state and audit log

AI estimates risk; it never moves funds directly. Outputs are probabilities for events such as depegging, reserve loss, or liquidity stress, plus confidence and evidence quality. They cannot be sell, mint, transfer, or collateral-change commands. The deterministic kernel consumes validated structured inputs, not raw model text. Its research outputs change synthetic policy and state, not real funds.

Canonical channels and independence

Arbitrary user questions cannot affect policy. Only canonical channels with fixed definition, measurement window, primary and fallback sources, confidence, timestamp, and version are eligible. Candidates cover depeg horizons, reserve loss, liquidity, collateral families, BTC/ETH/SOL crashes, and oracle, bridge, or counterparty failure.

AI, crowd, top-forecaster, and observed-market signals remain separate. Averaging multiple models does not establish safety. Calibration, source quality, and domain weights require versioned validation. Material transitions require independent channels and observed evidence. Several models repeating one source are not independent confirmations.

State and outage behavior

The research states are NORMAL, WATCH, DEFENSIVE, and CRISIS. Tightening can be rapid; relaxation requires improved forecasts, observed stability, and a minimum dwell time. Hysteresis prevents oscillation and immediate expansion after a false low-risk signal. Policy changes have magnitude and rate limits.

Reproducibility requires more than RiskSnapshot: prior state, assets, liabilities, policy version, evaluation time, and previous transition and adjustment times must also be fixed.

Disagreement, low source quality, or provider/oracle outages trigger deterministic conservative fallback. The research direction forbids risk expansion and collateral relaxation and applies more conservative liquidity and exposure limits. One signal cannot arbitrarily decide a material transition; unavailable-input handling must also be a predefined policy branch.

Forecast resolution may enter PAUSED when all judgment providers fail. The Safety Kernel's synthetic state processing must continue without waiting for AI. It must operate conservatively when no valid new probability is available.

Synthetic capital roles

Research role Meaning Boundary
STABLE Senior synthetic liability targeting one reference-currency unit No real redemption claim or mainnet asset is issued
ALONG Junior synthetic capital that absorbs losses first Its future market value is excluded from STABLE solvency
ASHORT Separate synthetic insurance and tail-risk capital Not a reward for forecasters or an extra copy of reserve assets

These are research-role labels. No mapping to DONG, HAE, or BADA has been agreed. Insurance is synthetic input for loss-absorption and liquidity experiments, not a fundraising or return-distribution promise. Setting ALONG's value to zero must not change STABLE solvency. The 10% insurance reserve is already included in total backing and must not be added again under the ASHORT label.

Solvency and immediate liquidity

Calculate and display two independent quantities:

Sufficient accounting assets do not establish cash availability at the required time. Experiments distinguish recovery times, haircuts, correlations, insurance access, and counterparty failure. Zero denominators, post-redemption asset and liability reductions, and hedge settlement time need explicit rules. Zero hedge effectiveness is a required scenario.

Status of the supplied simulation table

The 135% initial backing, crypto exposure reduction from 15% to 8%, 80% hedge coverage, and scenarios A–E are synthetic assumptions. The static-solvency column was reproduced using weighted losses. Forecast-defensive solvency and run coverage remain unverified because their definitions are incomplete. PASS and MARGINAL are not completed model validation or real survival evidence.

The independently calculated defensive allocation without hedges already exceeds the supplied defensive results. Under one explicit interpretation, scenario E is 117.585% before a hedge; applying 80% coverage and 20% effectiveness to remaining crypto losses raises it to 118.9998%, not the supplied 111.7%. Missing costs, execution timing, or loss rules must be identified. The larger number must not replace the original as a performance claim.

If all of E's stated 111.7% assets receive a further 30% liquidity haircut, coverage of an 80% redemption run is at most about 0.977×. Explaining the supplied 1.08× requires asset-level liquidity buckets, timing, and haircut definitions. The arithmetic review and missing specifications are recorded with that design.

Before reproduction, fix A–D hedge effectiveness, hedge cost and payoff formulas, liquidity buckets, haircut order, percentage denominators, lead time, reallocation cost and delay, state thresholds, dwell times, and rate limits. Define behavior between the 105% unsafe solvency boundary and 110% target, and between the 100% liquidity boundary and 120% target. These are research parameters with different purposes, not guarantees of real safety, returns, or redemption.

First reproduce results with pure deterministic functions, then run 10,000 or more stress scenarios with retained seeds, policies, and input versions. Include false low- and high-risk signals, hedge failure, correlated losses, concentrated redemptions, and source or oracle outages. Unnecessary defensive actions also cost resources; a false high-risk signal must not simply be assumed harmless.

Completion requires the new risk domain, simulator, kernel, probability-only adapter, Devnet audit trail, and separate laboratory interface. Forecast Milestone 1 does not complete this new implementation. The research roadmap defines its gates.

Pricing and autonomous operation — 0.8.0

A separate research design (private) compares fixed odds, pooled settlement, independent scoring and a funded LMSR. The current implementation rehearses LMSR with isolated test points while retaining separate accuracy and reputation scores. Existing fixed-return commitments keep their original promises; they are not converted into market positions.

Participants explicitly review a quote before confirming. An accepted order moves the next price and retains its own return. With the initial tested policy, 100 test points yield 190.902828 claims if correct and move YES from 50% to 54.76%. The local Worker/D1 check confirmed that actual participation points did not change. Active point markets remain gated off pending their operational and abuse controls.

Official-source observation connects changed evidence to an intake hold and bounded AI review. A versioned early positive-trigger path can propose an outcome when the original conditions have already been satisfied. It preserves the original closing time, records evidence-time precision and retains the normal 48-hour challenge period. This is not a promise of complete news coverage or instant detection.

The existing iPhone question entered CHALLENGE after actual independent reviews proposed YES. Its original specification remains unchanged. No final outcome or payout is claimed before the full challenge period completes.

Advertising is excluded. The new service-reserve sandbox rehearses cost allocation, uncertain provider bills and refunds, but explicitly reports that it is nonbillable. There is no payment adapter, paid question publication or purchased point balance. Question creation remains free and the operator still pays running costs. Automatic income would require real customer demand and a separately verified service-payment system; accounting alone cannot cover expenses.

Implementation, isolated runtime and production rollout checks are complete. Actual early review produced a YES proposal; full-cycle finalization remains to be observed after the challenge window. See the runtime architecture for exact limits and verification record for completed checks and remaining release gates.